“Two important supply-side trends are decreasing the number of skilled laborers in the US workforce: the aging US population and too few younger people entering the trades.” That is a quote from the McKinsey and Company’s article on the critical demand for tradespeople in the United States. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are more than twice the amount of people in the United States between the ages of 35-44 in the motor vehicle industry than people 16-24. Similar data can be found in the mining, manufacturing, and maintenance industries. While much of the gap can be attributed to the fact that more middle aged people are working than teenagers, if not enough young people are entering the trades, what is going to happen when the master tradesmen, the backbone of the industry, retire?

What exactly is considered a trade, or a blue collar job? Oxford defines “Trade” as “a skilled manual occupation that requires special training.” A job where you need to work with your hands, and know what you’re doing. A job that requires years of specialized training and effort. “For these roles, we found that from 2022 to 2032, annual hiring is expected to be more than 20 times the projected annual increase in net new jobs. This extraordinary rate of churn could cost companies more than $5.3 billion every year in talent acquisition and training costs alone. The additional lost productivity as new talent is brought up to speed could amount to significantly more.” (McKinsey & Company).

There is a dramatic difference in the amount of estimated new jobs compared to the estimated amount of annual hires, and hiring all these new employees is estimated to cost businesses over $5 billion in simply finding and training these new employees. According to the OECD, the difference in the ratio of post-working age individuals compared to working age individuals between 1984 and 2027 is expected to have risen by up to 75%, from 2:10 to 3.5:10. More people are leaving the industry—not entering. According to a recent survey of 1,000 18-24 year olds by Jobber, 74% report perceiving a stigma associated with choosing vocational school over a traditional four-year university. 79% respond that their parents would rather them pursue a 4-year university, compared to only 5% for a vocational school.

So why is it that young people, as well as their parents, are uninterested in pursuing a “blue collar” line of work? These jobs are not only available but are needed, especially right now due to the high demand for infrastructure, as well as the ongoing energy transition, and it’s estimated that this demand for young workers will hit the construction and manufacturing industries more than anything. There always has been, and always will be a need for young mechanics, electricians, plumbers, welders, construction workers, machinists, ironworkers, HVAC techs, and any other line of work requiring a skilled laborer.

Another McKinsey article writes that between 2024 and 2030, the “global renewables industry will need an additional 1.1 Million blue collar workers to develop and construct wind and solar plants and an additional 1.7 Million workers to operate and maintain them.” Additionally, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average weekly earnings for construction and manufacturing roles have risen by around 23.5% and 20.1% compared to pre-covid wages. So if there is not only a desire in the industry for young workers, but also the willingness to pay them more, why are many young people avoiding the industry? Much of it can be attributed to the education system and the ideas that are planted in teenagers about trade schools compared to universities.

One of the most influential factors driving young people away from the trades is the modern education system’s near-exclusive emphasis on four-year college pathways. Over the last several decades, high schools have increasingly measured success by college acceptance rates rather than by how well they prepare students for the workforce as a whole. Guidance counselors, administrators, and even teachers often present university as the default “next step,” while vocational education is framed as a fallback option for students who are struggling academically. As a result, many students are never meaningfully exposed to trade careers, apprenticeship programs, or technical schools during the years when they are forming long term plans. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, enrollment in Career and Technical Education  programs has declined significantly since the early 2000s, particularly in hands-on fields like manufacturing, construction, and mechanics. This decline is not due to a lack of opportunity, but rather a lack of institutional encouragement.

At the same time, the financial realities of higher education are rarely discussed honestly with students. The average student loan borrower in the United States now graduates with over $39,000 in debt, with the total national student loan debt being over $1.7 trillion. Contrarily, many trade programs cost a fraction of that amount and allow students to enter the workforce years earlier, often through paid apprenticeships. According to the BLS, many skilled trade occupations, such as electricians, framers, and industrial mechanics, have median annual wages that meet or exceed the national median income, without requiring a bachelor’s degree. Despite this, students are frequently told that college is the only reliable path to financial stability, while trade careers are portrayed as physically demanding, unstable, or lacking upward mobility. This narrative ignores the reality that many trades offer clear advancement paths, strong union representation, and long-term job security.

This is a lot of information, but what do real tradesmen think about this?

A local San Fernando Valley mechanic that I interviewed said “I think the reason that kids today don’t know how to do anything is not just the fault of their parents not teaching them, but mostly schools. When I was in high school, I had metal shop, auto shop, and wood shop. Now, almost all schools have gotten rid of those programs. If school really wanted to teach kids, they would learn to work with their hands, and not just sit in a classroom.” The owner of the shop said “Its hard to find young talent nowadays. All the guys (experienced mechanics) are getting old, and we don’t have a good lineup to replace them when these guys retire.”

The lack of young talent being available across the industry isn’t as much of a problem right now as it will be in 10 or 20 years, when today’s professionals are simply too old to keep working. By that time, it will be too late, and there will be an incredible shortage of workers. You can’t teach someone 40 years of experience overnight.

The consequences of this trend extend far beyond individual career choices. As experienced tradespeople retire without enough younger workers to replace them, the effects will be felt across the entire economy. Infrastructure projects will take longer and cost more, housing shortages will worsen due to limited construction labor, and essential services like electrical, plumbing, and vehicle repair will become increasingly expensive and difficult to access. The Associated General Contractors of America reports that over 80% of construction firms already struggle to fill skilled labor positions, and the BLS projects that millions of skilled trade workers will need to be replaced by 2032 due to retirements alone. These are not distant or hypothetical problems, they are a recession in the making.

Well, what can we do to help alleviate some of the impending struggles? Reversing this trend will require many meaningful changes within the education system. Trade education must be reintroduced and normalized at the middle and high school levels, not as a last resort, but as a respected and viable pathway. Career and Technical Education programs, hands-on shop classes, and partnerships with local trade unions and apprenticeship programs are what are needed to give students early exposure to skilled labor careers. According to the U.S. Department of Education, students who participate in high quality CTE programs are more likely to graduate high school and secure stable employment after graduation. Simply showing students what these careers look like in practice can dramatically change perceptions and open doors that many never knew existed.

Equally important is changing the cultural narrative surrounding blue-collar work. Trades should not be framed as “less than” when compared to college educated professions, but as essential, skilled, and often highly technical careers that keep society functioning. Parents, educators, and policymakers all play a role in shaping this narrative. As labor demand continues to rise and wages increase, the idea that trade work is a dead end career becomes increasingly disconnected from reality. In many cases, skilled trades offer faster entry into the workforce, lower debt, and comparable or better long-term earnings than many four-year degrees. Exiting high school with a full time job, union benefits, and almost unlimited room for growth doesn’t sound so bad now, does it?

In conclusion, the disappearance of young people from the trades is not caused by a lack of opportunity, demand, or benefits, but by systemic failures in education and cultural perception. If the United States hopes to maintain its vital infrastructure, energy production systems, and industrial dominance, it must invest not only in physical projects, but in the people who build and maintain them. Revaluing trade education and integrating it back into the school system should not just be thought of as an educational reform, but rather a necessary change for the future of the American people as a whole.